Predicting New Global Temperature Record within Two Years

The Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), which is under the authority of NASA has released their December 2008 temperature data and also the full 2008 annual data.

First, here is their December global anomaly map....

I did not see any of the specific numbers for the month, but I will continue to look..

The year 2008.

The base period from 1951-1980 was used to determine the global temperature anomalies.

--2008 was the coolest year since 2000, which is supported by other methods. (+0.44).

--2008 was the 9th warmest year since records were kept back to 1880. When considering the
margin of uncertainty, GISS is confident that 2008 was somewhere between the 7th and 10th warmest year on record.

--The ten warmest years all occurred from 1997-2008.

GISS states that comparing the 2008 chart below left with the mean 2001-2007 anomalies clearly shows why 2008 was the coolest since 2000. The main differences between the two charts is in the Pacific. Note: the cooling in the Pacific during 2008 and also over North America.

GISS also responds to questions about their prediction from last year which stated that a new global temperature record was likely within the next 2-3 years (now, the next 1-2 years).

According to GISS, there are several factors to consider when making this prediction......

1. El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). History says that a prolonged La Nina is unlikely for 2009/2010 despite the trends over the past few months. The subsurface of the Pacific in their opinion appears recharged for the next El Nino and there is a good chance for an El Nino in 2009 or 2010. Note; There is usually a 3-6 month lag in global temperature response to a change in ENSo conditions.

2. Solar Irradiance. Most solar physicists expect the irradiance to begin to pick up in the next several months after a longer than normal period of low solar output. Even if the irradiance does pick up, the 1-2 year lag in any surface temperature response to the cycle means that solar irradiance will continue to provide a negative anomaly for the next 2-3 years.

3. Volcanic aerosols.

4. Greenhouse gases (GHG's). The latest GHG forcing trend translates into a mean warming rate of ~0.15 Celsius per decade.

Updated prediction from GISS.......It still seems likely that a new global temperature record will be set within the next 1-2 years, despite the moderate negative effect of the reduced solar irradiance.

Thanks to global-warming.accuweather

Temperature map show a cooler USA in 2008

No red dots on this map. The map above appears to be representing Weather Service Forecast Office forecast zones, though I’m not absolutely sure since no reference is included with the map. If so, then each of these divisions is an area where a Zone Forecast is issued for. These are what we see as our regular daily forecasts on TV, Newspapers, and Radio. The map above is from NCDC’s research section and was brought to my attention by WUWT commenter “pearlandaggie”.

If we just look at the month of December, the USA still looks cooler than normal or near normal for the most part, with the southeast USA being the exception:

Click for source image

NOAA says in the press release:

South Carolina and Georgia had their sixth and eighth, respectively, warmest December on record.

The first map was not part of the press release, the second one was. I wonder why NOAA chose not to include a yearly map presentation like the first one above from their research section, but only chose to show one for December 2008 even though the title of the press release was:

NOAA: 2008 Temperature for U.S. Near Average, was Coldest Since 1997; Below Average for December

It would seem to me that if you run a press release about the entire year of 2008, you’d put in a map for 2008 also. It’s not like they didn’t have one available.

To their credit, they did include the time series, but as my years of television experience have told me, that isn’t often as easily interpreted by the general public.

Here is what the CONUS temperature time series looks like with 2008 added, as included in the press release:

NOAA says in their press release:

For 2008, the average temperature of 53.0 degrees F was 0.2 degree above the 20th Century average.

In other words; near normal.

thanks to wattsupwiththat

Greenland Glaciers may be Stabilizing after Rapid Retreat

Greenland Glaciers.

So far this century, the glaciers of Greenland have been shrinking at a rapid pace, but according to a new study from Durham University in England this rapid decrease may stall out despite atmospheric warming, thus diminishing Greenland's contribution to rising sea levels due to global warming.

"Our modeling suggests that these very high rates of glacier retreat can’t be maintained for very long," said Andreas Vieli, a co-author of the paper, according to the Bloomberg.com article.

Studies at one particular glacier (Helheim) in Greenland indicated that the main driver of the melting was a break at the glacier's snout in the sea that had a domino effect inland. But, the researchers found that the glaciers stabilize after an initial rapid retreat.

The Helheim glacier retreated 7 kilometers between 2003 and 2005, but has since advanced 4 kilometers.

Images showing the retreat of the Helheim Glacier from 2001-2005.

This latest study will help scientists to tune existing computer models for ice sheets to predict future melting, Vieli said.

thanks global-warming.accuweather

No Matter What Happens, Someone Will Blame Global Warming

Global warming was blamed for everything from beasts gone wild to anorexic whales to the complete breakdown of human society this year -- showing that no matter what it is and where it happens, scientists, explorers, politicians and those who track the Loch Ness Monster are comfortable scapegoating the weather.

FOXNews.com takes a look back at 10 things that global warming allegedly caused — or will no doubt soon be responsible for — as reported in the news around the world in 2008.

1. Cannibalism

In April, media mogul Ted Turner told PBS's Charlie Rose that global warming would make the world 8 degrees hotter in 30 or 40 years. "Civilization will have broken down. The few people left will be living in a failed state, like Somalia or Sudan, and living conditions will be intolerable," he said.

Turner blamed global warming on overpopulation, saying "too many people are using too much stuff."

Crops won't grow and "most of the people will have died and the rest of us will be cannibals," Turner said.

2. The Death of the Loch Ness Monster

In February, Scotland's Daily Mirror reported that 85-year-old American Robert Rines would be giving up his quest for Scotland's most famous underwater denizen.

A World War II veteran, Rines has spent 37 years hunting for Nessie with sonar equipment. In 2008, "despite having hundreds of sonar contacts over the years, the trail has since gone cold and Rines believes that Nessie may be dead, a victim of global warming."

3. Beer Gets More Expensive

In April, the Associated Press reported that global warming was going to hit beer drinkers in the wallet because the cost of barley would increase, driving up the price of a pint.

Jim Salinger, a climate scientist at New Zealand's National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, said Australia would be particularly hard hit as droughts caused a decline in malting barley production in parts of New Zealand and Australia. "It will mean either there will be pubs without beer or the cost of beer will go up," Salinger said at a beer brewer's convention, the AP reported.

4. Pythons Take Over America

Giant Burmese pythons – big enough to eat alligators and deer in a single mouthful – will be capable of living in one-third of continental U.S. as global warming makes more of the country hospitable to the cold-blooded predators, according to an April report from USAToday.com.

The U.S. Geological Survey and the Fish and Wildlife Service investigated the spread of "invasive snakes," like the pythons, brought to the U.S. as pets. The Burmese pythons' potential American habitat would expand by 2100, according to global warming models, the paper reported.

"We were surprised by the map. It was bigger than we thought it was going to be," says Gordon Rodda, zoologist and lead project researcher, told USAToday.com. "They are moving northward, there's no question."

5. Kidney Stones

A University of Texas study said global warming will cause an increase in kidney stones over the next 30 years, the Globe and Mail reported in July.

Scientists predict that higher temperatures will lead to more dehydration and therefore to more kidney stones. "This will come and get you in your home," said Dr. Tom Brikowski, lead researcher and an associate professor at the University of Texas at Dallas. "It will make life just uncomfortable enough that maybe people will slow down and think what they're doing to the climate."

6. Skinny Whales

Japanese scientists, who have claimed that the country's controversial whaling program is all in the name of science, said in August that if they hadn't been going around killing whales, they never would have discovered that the creatures were significantly skinnier than whales killed in the late 1980s, the Guardian reported in August.

The researchers said the study was the first evidence that global warming was harming whales by restricting their food supplies. As water warmed around the Antarctic Peninsula, the krill population shrank by 80 percent as sea ice declined, eliminating much of the preferred food of the minke whale.

The whales studied had lost the same amount of blubber as they would have by starving for 36 days, but the global warming connection couldn't be proven because no krill measurements are taken in different regions.

7. Shark Attacks

A surge in fatal shark attacks was the handiwork of global warming, according to a report in the Guardian in May.

George Burgess of Florida University, a shark expert that maintains an attack database, told the Guardian that shark attacks were caused by human activity. "As the population continues to rise, so does the number of people in the water for recreation. And as long as we have an increase in human hours in the water, we will have an increase in shark bites," he said.

Shark attacks could also be the result of global warming and rising sea temperatures, the Guardian said. "You'll find that some species will begin to appear in places they didn't in the past with some regularity," Burgess said.

8. Black Hawk Down

Although it happened in 1993, the crash of a U.S. military helicopter in Mogadishu that became the film "Black Hawk Down" was blamed on global warming by a Massachusetts congressman in 2008.

"In Somalia back in 1993, climate change, according to 11 three- and four-star generals, resulted in a drought which led to famine,” Rep. Edward Markey told a group of students who had come to the Capitol to discuss global warming, according to CNSNews.com. "That famine translated to international aid we sent in to Somalia, which then led to the U.S. having to send in forces to separate all the groups that were fighting over the aid, which led to Black Hawk Down."

9. Frozen Penguin Babies

Penguin babies, whose water-repellant feathers had not grown in yet, froze to death after torrential rains, National Geographic reported in July.

"Many, many, many of them—thousands of them—were dying," explorer Jon Bowermaster told National Geographic. Witnessing the mass penguin death "painted a clear and grim picture" of global warming.

"It's not just melting ice," Bowermaster said. "It's actually killing these cute little birds that are so popular in the movies."

10. Killer Stingray Invasion

Global warming is going to drive killer stingrays, like the one that killed Crocodile Hunter Steve Irwin, to the shores of Britain after a 5-foot -long marbled stingray was captured by fishermen, the Daily Mail reported in June.

A single touch can zap a man with enough electricity to kill, the Mail said, and global warming is bringing the Mediterranean killers north.

"Rising sea temperatures may well have brought an influx of warm water visitors," sea life curator Alex Gerrard told the Mail. "Where there's one electric ray, it's quite likely that there are more."

Asia-Pacific Faces Global Warming Disaster

Millions of people in the Asia-Pacific region could be forced from their homes and suffer increasing disease, cyclones and floods caused by global warming, scientists warned Monday. Climate change will seriously threaten regional human security and national economies this century, according to a report by the Australian government's Commonwealth Scientific and Research Organisation (CSIRO).

Scientists blame global warming on greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, produced mainly by the burning of fossil fuels including coal and oil, for causing rising temperatures worldwide.

"Rapid growth in large regional economies such as China and India has elevated human prosperity," the report says.

"However, unless ultimately decoupled from fossil-fuel use, such growth also threatens to exacerbate the climate challenge."

The CSIRO says that remaining below the generally accepted threshold for "dangerous" climate change of about two degrees Celsius would require global greenhouse gas emissions to be reduced by 30-55 percent below 1990 levels.

"If you don't, if you did nothing, you're likely to blow right past it," Benjamin Preston, key author of the report, told AFP.

Temperatures are likely to rise more quickly in the arid areas of northern Pakistan and India and western China, the report says.

But the region will also be affected by a rise in the global sea level of up to 16 centimetres (six inches) by 2030 and by up to 50 centimetres in 2070, along with regional variables.

Preston said two studies contained in the report estimate that a sea-level rise of a metre (39 inches) would displace between 75 million and 150 million people in the Asia-Pacific region.

Most at risk are the low-lying river deltas of Bangladesh, India, Vietnam and China, as well as the small Pacific island states.

Changing patterns of temperature and rainfall would also cause a shift in the distribution of dengue and malaria-carrying mosquitoes, likely exposing millions more people to such diseases by the end of the century.

"Higher temperatures may reduce the risk of cold-weather mortality, but increase heat-related mortality, while increased flooding and intensification of tropical cyclones would increase climate-related injuries and deaths," the report says.

The aid groups that commissioned the report said it was a wake-up call for Australia, one of the world's worst polluters on a per-capita basis.

"Climate change will fundamentally change the way we aid the world's poor," said World Vision Australia chief executive Tim Costello.

"It will undermine the value and impact of current aid spending and will lead to far greater calls for assistance from those hurt most."

Environmental and rights activists also called on the government to prepare to accept environmental refugees fleeing small Pacific island states hit by rising sea levels.

Polar Bear

Polar Bear Listed in Endangered Species Act, but U.S. Government Limits Its Protection

The polar bear was officially listed as threatened under the U.S. endangered species act (ESA) on May 14, 2008. This the first creature brought under the act's protection for habitat loss that is linked to global warming. The official reason given was loss of Arctic sea ice and predictions that the ice will continue to decrease. Although global warming has been identified by most atmospheric and polar scientists as the main reason for Arctic warming and melting of sea ice, the U.S. Interior Department did not use this as a reason and clearly signaled it would not apply the law to greenhouse gas emissions.

Dirk Kempthorne, Interior Secretary, specifically said the listing would not prevent any sea ice from melting and that he would "make certain the ESA isn't abused to make global warming policies." This despite clear language in the ESA to control any activity causing harm to a listed species and requiring government agencies specifically not to jeopardize species by their actions. The wording of the listing document appears to be an attempt of the government to list the bear due to clear evidence of shrinking habitat yet not take all the steps to limit the loss. It seems analogous to President Bush's notorious "signing statements" limiting his acceptance of a Congressional law.

This could set up another court challenge by NGOs like the Center for Biological Diversity which originally brought the proposal and took the Interior Dept to court twice to get action.

"Threatened" under the ESA means a plant or animal may soon become endangered (at immediate risk of going extinct) if actions are not taken to protect it and its habitat.

See inside for more details on Arctic melting and polar bear habitat. Alaska Link

Climate change across the Arctic Link

Pushing the Boundaries of Life: Tropics

for many years, it was thought that tropical rainforests were essentially unaffected by climate change Now studies are showing that not only were they changed during past events like ice ages, but some areas are being affected right now by warming. At Monteverde Cloud Forest Reserve, Costa Rica, clouds are forming higher, drying out some of the habitat and causing changes in flora and fauna.

The most celebrated peer reviewed case is the disappearance of the golden toads, Bufo periglenes. Each year Dr. Alan Pounds and others search for the distinctive orange amphibian in its restricted habitat along a narrow, fog-bound ridge. About 1500 toads were sighted in 1987. But now the breeding pools remain empty -- the toad has not been seen since 1991 and is feared extinct.

the golden toad and other amphibians and lizards studied by Dr. Pounds are in decline apparently due to regional temperature increases lifting the level of clouds, effectively drying out the cloud forest moisture on which they depend. This species, Antelopus varius, once common throughout Costa Rica, was not found at all in a recent survey, according to Dr. Pounds. Some of this change may be due to deforestation in lowland Costa Rica, and a group of scientists at Monteverde is planning more study. At the same time, research by Dr. Nalini Nadkarni shows drying will drastically change the composition of the diverse epiphyte community that inhabits the cloud forest canopy.

Dryer conditions in the cloud forest concern Dr. Karen Masters, who studies tiny Pleurothallic canopy orchids. Lenghtening dry periods could drive some into extinction. "We are now seeing 2, 3 even 5 days in a row without moisture." she reports. "This is very challenging to these orchids." Also, recent repeat surveys of bats by Dr. Richard LaVal, and of birds by Debra DeRosier (repeating a 1979 survey by Dr. George Powell) shows lowland, dry habitat species are already moving higher into former cloud forest areas.


Other big changes are being monitored in the tropics, too. Sixteen years of data on tree growth, tropical air temperatures and CO2 readings indicate that a warming climate may cause the tropical forests to give off more carbon dioxide than they take up. This wouldupset the common belief that tropical forests are always a sink for carbon, taking huge amounts out of the atmosphere.

The study, by Deborah and David Clark of the La Selva biological station in Costa Rica, and Charles Keeling and Stephen Piper of the Scripps Institution, reports that rainforest trees grow much more slowly in warmer nighttime temperatures, which is a hallmark of climate change in the tropics.

In other parts of the tropics, even in places that have been undisturbed for more than 4500 years, the rise in atmospheric CO2 appears to be changing the composition of the forest. In a paper in the 11 March 2004 issue of Nature, William Laurance and colleagues document that many tree genera in Amazonia are growing faster than they were in the 1980s.

Other tree types are declining in vitality. The study of 13,700 trees in 18 very isolated plots in Brazil concluded that increased carbon dioxide is the most plausible explanation for the abrupt shifts in species growth. This "could also have serious ecological repercussions for the diverse Amazonian biota" wrote the scientists.

Warming Winds, Rising Tides: Unstable Weather

A warming atmosphere and ocean make for a great deal of extra energy available for the creation of weather. Around the world, recent data show an increase in severity of storms, droughts, rainfall, and floods.

The disastrous hurricane season of 2005 was just one indication of how synergistic weather is with sea level rise, loss of wetlands, social issues, and the ability of governments to respond. Three storms strengthened to category 5 in the Atlantic Basin for the first time in a single season (Katrina, Rita, and Wilma). An unprecedented 27 named tropical storms formed, according to NOAA, and more than half of them became hurricanes.

2005 equaled 1998 as warmest year ever recorded. NOAA reported: "Mean temperatures through the end of November were warmer than average in all but three states. No state was cooler than average. A July heat wave ... broke more than 200 daily records established in six western states." "The heat wave spread across the country during late July, scorching the East and prompted record electricity usage in New England and New York."

"Drier-than-average conditions contributed to an active wildfire season that burned more than 8.5 million acres in 2005.... This exceeds the old record set in 2000 for acreage burned in a wildfire season for the U.S. as a whole. At the end of November, 18 percent of the contiguous U.S. was in moderate-to-extreme drought ... in contrast to 6 percent at the end of November last year." Worldwide, "significant weather and climate events for the globe included: severe drought in parts of southern Africa and the Greater Horn of Africa, extreme monsoon-related rainfall in western India including a 24-hour rainfall total of 37.1 inches in Mumbai, the worst drought in decades in the Amazon River basin, severe drought in large parts of western Europe , and a record warm year in Australia." For details please link to http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2005/ann/ann05.html



Heat is a particularly insidious killer, especially in urban centers heavily populated by the poor and elderly. Heat kills many more people than do other weather disasters such as tornados, even in the United States. The worst local US heat wave killed more than 730 people in Chicago in July 1995. Unfortunately it was far exceeded by the European heat wave of August 2003, which claimed at least 35,000 lives. Fra nce alone, which suffered through two weeks with readings as high as 104 F (40 C), lost nearly 15,000. As Janet Larsen of the Environmental Policy Institute wrote, this is 19 times the world death toll from SARS.

A study of long term European temperatures, published in Science in March 2004 showed that 2003 was the hottest summer in 500 years, part of a trend that is not expected to abate. Jonathan Patz and colleagues wrote in Nature in 2005 that this has already contributed to increased morbidity and mortality in many regions of the world. They warned of increasing effects in temperate latitudes and sprawling cities, where the majority of humans live now.

Weather disasters, perhaps now less often "Acts of God," are increasing. Insurance companies paid out a record $145 billion on weather disasters in 2004, according to the clearinghouse Munich Re, compared to $65 billion the year before and $36 billion in 2001. This reflects primarily the number of people at risk in storm-prone areas like coasts and the increasing value of their property. Instability in the atmosphere may also increase the number of rapid changes and "inclement" weather, illustrated by these photos of Prospect Park, Brooklyn New York: Daffodils bloom on a 70 degree day in April 2000 (roll mouse over to see change), but the next day they are buried in 4 inches of snow.



Meteo rologists already see an increase in severity of storms, rainfall, and floods (this aerial of Gurnee Illinois was made after abnormal rains in the spring of 2004). These anomalies from what we think is "normal" are expected to continue around the world.

Pushing the Boundaries of Life: Antarctica

A colony of Adelies on Humble Island, one of eight islets off Anvers Island where thousands of Adelies have nested for some 600 years. Over the last 25 years these Adelie colonies have declined sharply. Chinstrap penguins are moving rapidly into Adelie territory. Archaeological digs in penguin colonies indicate there probably were no chinstraps in this area until about 50 years ago, when average temperatures began to rise.




Ornithologist Bill Fraser stands on the smooth pebbly surface of a former large colony of Adelie penguins on Torgersen Island. Unlike the colony in the photo above, this nesting site has been used by fewer and fewer penguins over recent years. Analyzing climate data, island topography, and breeding statistics, Fraser believes climate change caused the loss of half of its 16,000 nesting Adelies. Warming temperatures and more open water make for greater snowfall and more difficult hunting for krill, affecting nesting success. These changes are seen in other Adelie colonies on the Antarctic peninsula, but elsewhere in Antarctica, climate change either is favorable to the birds or is not affecting them.





A male Adelie penguin, back from a long feeding trip, disgorges krill for its chick. Krill develop best under seasonal ice, so thinner, less extensive winter ice can reduce the size of the shrimp-like Antarctic staple. The tiny radio transmitter on this bird's back allows Dr. Fraser to monitor how far and for how long penguins hunt for food. For some colonies, hunting times are becoming longer and longer as diminished seasonal sea ice extends the distance from rookery to feeding ground.

Ice Under Fire: Antarctica

The disintegrating face of the Müller Ice Shelf, Lallemand Fjord, Antarctic Peninsula, 67° South, April 2, 1999. This small shelf, fed by glaciers from the Loubet Coast, has been receding recently after growing over a 400-year cooling period. Like other receding ice shelves such as the larger Larsen, it may be a sensitive monitor of rising regional temperatures. The Larsen Ice Shelf lost a 1200 square mile section early in 2002. Earlier in the 1990's other huge sections of this shelf disintegrated. In 2003 Argentine glaciologists reported that the land-based glaciers exposed by the removal of those sections had surged rapidly into the ocean. Thus, although ice shelves are floating and do not add to sea level when they melt or break up, land based glaciers released by such events definitely will add to sea level.

Another view of the Müller Ice Shelf calving rapidly (right). Across the Peninsula, seven monitored ice shelves have declined by a total of about 13,500 km² since 1974, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This is nearly the area of Connectcut. On the Larsen shelf (satellite view left), about 3,250 km² of shelf in area B disintegrated in a 35-day period beginning on 31 January 2002. Eugene Domack, Hamilton College geologist, and others believe this portion of the shelf may have been stable for about 12,000 years before this year's collapse.

Technicians for the National Science Foundation on the rear deck of the research vessel, Nathaniel B. Palmer, prepare a kasten core device to lower into sediment near the Müller Ice Shelf. This is during a study by Dr. Eugene Domack, funded by the National Science Foundation, on the history of climate in peninsular Antarctica. All ice shelves in the area have been receding, but because they were already floating they do not raise sea level. The concern is that landed glaciers behind the shelves may be next to begin rapid retreat, which would raise ocean levels.

This mile-long ice cliff of Marr Ice Piedmont, Anvers Island, has receded about 500 meters since the mid 1960s. The cliff's previous position was to the left of the line of ice floating in the harbor and extended to the headland at the extreme upper left. The regional temperature has increased 5° C in winter over the past 50 years. This reduces seasonal icepack, disrupts growth of krill and changes conditions on penguin rookeries.

Warming Winds, Rising Tides: Arctic

Sea level rise also affects the Arctic, where it is frequently combines with permafrost thaw to create severe erosion. The native village of Shismaref Alaska, a village of about 590 Inupiats perched on a sandy barrier island on the NW shore of Seward Peninsula, has failed to halt the rising Bering Sea. Shore erosion of the narrow spit has been severe since the 1950s, and protective armor and wire gabions have been ineffective. The town faces a decision to move inland, away from this traditional site. Townspeople voted in 2002 to move their village to higher, more protected ground away from the ocean.

On Baffin Island, across from Greenland in Nunavut, Canada, the loss of ice and permafrost is affecting daily life of native Inuits. Winter hunting and fishing is limited severely by loss of ice. In summer, permafrost is thawing, creating more erosion, and ice that once covered the surrounding mountains year long is nearly all melted. Elders in the village of Pangnirtung report that winds have shifted and winters are getting much shorter -- observations that weather records confirm.

Elisapee Ishulutaq, a 78 year old artist with a spry and radiant smile, was born in an outpost camp when most natives here were nomadic. They were dog sledding as late as July, she remembers, more than two months later than snow and ice breaks up now. "All the mountains were covered with glaciers." she said. "There isn't any deep snow anymore." Elisapee pointed to her younger self in black and white photos on her living room wall. She said there were stories in her childhood about a warmer future. "It was foretold by the elders that sometime the north would warm up and south would cool down."