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Saturday, May 16, 2009

La Niña fading, El Niño may soon return

Sea Surface Temperatures as of 5-11-09 click for larger image

Sea Surface Temperatures as of 5-11-09 click for larger image


Source: http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.5.11.2009.gif


Bill Illis writes in comments:

The newest Ocean SST map shows the La Nina conditions have gone away and we are in slightly positive ENSO conditions.

Also interesting is that the negative PDO seems to be moving back to neutral right now. The cool SST conditions off of Alaska (which has been there for 3 years now) looks to be moderating as well.

From my perspective, the other interesting feature is how the recent La Ninas have loaded up cool SSTs in the Pacific off south-east Asia which will soon move into the Kuroshio currrent which will then flow across the north Pacific.

The upper ocean heat content is signaling we are going to move rapidly into El Nino conditions although most forecasts are calling for neutral conditions.

Source:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

Atmospheric Angular Momentum has really turned negative recently (signaling La Nina), the Trade Winds have fallen off to nothing (signaling El Nino).

So overall, the north Pacific is offically schizophrenic right now.

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